Germanium: China in Control – For Now

RFC Ambrian are pleased to present this research report on germanium, which is the second of six reports on niche critical minerals to come in 2025.

Our key takeaways:

• Germanium is a prominent “critical mineral” and is a common constituent of critical minerals lists in the USA, EU, Japan and Australia
• Spot germanium prices have recently retreated from all-time highs but remain elevated
• A significant source of new supply has recently emerged in DRC
• Identified projects which can supply germanium are rare, primarily due to the lack of available smelting and refining options

Due to their use in clean energy technologies and semiconductors, critical minerals have gained prominence in government policy agendas and in the public interest. Many of these commodities are experiencing increased demand, supply chain bottlenecks, volatile price movements, and are facing geopolitical headwinds.

Germanium is prominently featured on the critical minerals lists of most countries because of their reliance on imports, the limited substitution options, and the essential role it plays in producing goods vital to economies and national security.

Our analysis suggests that demand will continue to grow broadly in line with global GDP but is vulnerable to some substitution if germanium prices rise too strongly. The supply of germanium metal and chemicals continues to be largely controlled by China. However, new capacity coming on-stream from DRC should increase Western sources of the metal, and higher prices may stimulate the development of further new capacity.

Read Germanium Research Report