RFC Ambrian are pleased to present this research report on gallium, which is the third of six reports on niche critical minerals to come in 2025.
Our key takeaways:
- Gallium has strategic importance in semiconductor manufacturing and a high supply concentration, with China accounting for 98% of global primary gallium production in 2024
- The West is heavily reliant on Chinese exports for both low-and high-purity gallium.
- Gallium demand is growing, particularly from REPMs, LEDs, and semiconductors used in clean energy, electronics, and telecoms (e.g. 5G).
- Western production is minimal, and while new projects are emerging these remain limited in scale or early stage.
Due to their use in clean energy technologies and semiconductors, critical minerals have gained prominence in government policy agendas and in the public interest. Many of these commodities are experiencing increased demand, supply chain bottlenecks, volatile price movements, and are facing geopolitical headwinds.
Gallium plays a critical role in modern technologies and national security. However, with China dominating both primary supply and processing, Western markets face significant vulnerability. Access to this material has become more constrained following China’s recent export restrictions and total ban on exports to the US.
Despite strong demand growth driven by its use in semiconductors, LEDs, and permanent magnets, new production outside China remains scarce and slow to develop. Our report takes a closer look at the structural risks, market imbalances, and the growing urgency for Western nations to invest in alternative supply chains and recycling capabilities, with gallium poised to remain a geopolitical flashpoint.
